Energy Forecasts are Unrealistic
Since Thailand's present capacity for energy production is more than adequate, there's time to plan for power projects which leave a light footprint on the land and the people, writes SUPARA JANCHITFAH
April is the hottest month in Thailand, with the temperature rising as high as 42 degrees Celsius in some years. It is the month that people who are involved in energy forecasting and those who are responsible for "finding energy" use as the basis for their calculations on the energy needs for Thai consumers.
Karen both from Thailand and Burma pray to Mother Earth to save their river.
Many Internal Displaced Persons are hiding in the jungle around the Thai-Burmese border without a secure place to stay. — Photos by SUPARA JANCHITFAH
The calculations also take into account the country's GDP to determine the energy needs for the following year. The forecasts have assumed for 13 years in a row that Thailand's annual GDP would increase at an average rate of 6.5 percent. According to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat), the peak demand in 2005 was only 20,538 MW (which was recorded at April 26, 2005 at 2 pm), lower than Egat's predication by 605 MW (see graphic).
Witoon Permpongsacharoen of the Foundation for Ecology Recovery said that the calculations which overestimate actual energy needs should be corrected before they are used as the basis for the yearly energy forecast.
A major reason for the overcalculations is that the GDP has in fact increased on average only 3.6 percent if looking at the last 10 years, and 5.2 percent if looking at the last 15 years. Witoon said the energy forecast calculation should be modified to reflect an increase of GDP "not higher than that of the average rate of the past 15 years."
Inaccuracy in peak demand forecast in the past years must also be taken into account, said Suphakij Nuntavorakarn, an economist of the Health System Research Institute. Records reveal that the real peak demand has been consistently lower than Egat's forecasts for many years. This applies to the previous Power Development Plan (PDP), not just the present PDP. Suphakij noted that the installation cost for each MW for an electricity power plant using any kind of fuel is on average about one million US dollars, or about 35-38 million baht.
According to information given to the World Commission on Dams in 1999, the final cost of Egat's Pak Moon dam was 6.507 billion baht (US$ 260 million). The dam was built to provide 136 MW as a run of the river project to serve peak needs. However, based on the daily power output data between 1995-99, Pak Moon can generate only 15 percent of its capacity reliably in the 4-hour peak period.
Yet more than 6,155 fishermen were significantly affected by the project, some having to leave their comunities and take menial jobs in Bangkok.
Suphakij explained that presently Egat has a 26,457 MW installed capacity base. As last year's peak demand was 20,538 MW, Thailand has an electricity surplus of 5,919 MW, making the total reserve margin of 28.82 percent. Even when calculated only on the basis of the "dependable capacity", the reserve margin is more than 23.45 percent, explained Suphakij.
In the coming years there are many other projects coming on line that will produce more electricity to supply the system. For example, the BLCP power plant in Rayong will produce 1,346 MW this coming October.
Wittoon added that Thailand's energy demand will never be met if Thai people don't learn how to properly manage it. He urges considering alternative energy sources with less environmental impacts than constructing fossil-fuelled or hydro power plants. A more responsible national energy policy would include such programmes as Demand Side Management (DSM), renewable energy generation, co-generation and re-powering existing power plants, he said.
However, the Egat is determined to go ahead with projects to deliver more energy, like the series of hydropower dams on the Salween. Egat officials argue about the need for energy security. The official line is that hydropower from the Salween River is needed to serve Thailand's growing power demand, that hydropower is cheap and helps increase the country's fuel diversification. This is of strategic importance to national security and also to strengthen Thailand's standing as a regional trade hub.
SITES UNDER STUDY
At a hearing before the Senate Committee on Social Development and Human Security last year, Chavalit Pichalai, the director of the Energy Analysis Bureau, Office of Energy Planning and Policy, Ministry of Energy, testified that Thailand needs to purchase more energy from neighbouring countries due to an economic growth rate of about four to five percent a year. "Each year, we need about 1,500 MW more of electricity. Presently we have about a 19-20 percent reserve margin. Normally we should have about 15 percent reserve margin. Thus in four to five years we will need more electricity, (even) apart from purchasing from Independent Power Producers (IPP)," he explained.
He said that Thailand also needs to consider the risks from the type of energy used. Presently 70 percent of electricity is generated by gas. "Hydropower is clean energy and the (proposed) Salween dams located high in the mountains can produce more energy at a lower cost," said Chavalit.
Niwat Pattanasemakul, director of the Hydropower Division at Egat, testified that the Thai and Burmese governments have a bilateral agreement to develop hydropower in the Salween River basin. The Thai government has assigned Egat to conduct surveys and studies.
"We found that four dams have some possibility to be constructed," Niwat said, adding that Egat has already reduced the area that would be submerged and that the social impact of the dams is also included in the studies.
Chavalit said that the project will have little impact even though the electricity line will pass through a class A1 watershed area. "But we will not cut the forest," he assured.
Chavalit said the energy produced by the series of dams on the Salween would be cheap, about 80 to 90 satang per unit. However, no one could give a clear idea if this includes the costs of the social and environmental impacts, as well as the rights of the minority groups from both countries.
Moreover, there is a risk in using foreign energy, according Dr Jirakorn Kotchaseni, a member of a subcommittee of the Senate committee. He warned that Thailand should be aware of the uncertainties of international politics, and the possibility that the international community will blame Thailand for exploiting the natural resources of neighbouring countries.
"We should pay high concern to the participation and the rights of minorities," he said, adding that "we may not have been thinking seriously about a decentralised energy system."
Chavalit assured that the concerned agencies will listen to the people before any decision is arrived at regarding the dams' construction.
A regulation concerning the use of foreign energy states that the amount of energy that Egat can import from each country should not be more than 13 percent of the total electricity produced in Thailand.
MOA SIGNED
In late February of this year, Nipol Pienpak, the Hydropower Engineering Division manager of Egat, testified before the Senate committee that Egat has already signed the MOA (Memorandum of Agreement) for Development, Ownership and Cooperation of the Hutgyi Hydropower project on the Thanlwin (Salween) River with the Department of Hydroelectric Power, under the Ministry of Electric Power of the Government of the Union of Myanmar on December 9 last year, but said "the details of the MOA cannot be disclosed."
He said the waters of the Hutgyi dam's reservoir would reach a height of about 48 metres above sea level and there will be a series of five dams on the Salween, but not all would belong to Egat. (See related story).
Nipol said that Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has not been conducted as the process is only in the survey stage. The MOA specifies that Egat will be assigned as the implementing agency to conduct surveys and studies because Burma lacks the technology to do so. There are no details on the cost of electricity produced at the dam as it is still in the studying process, he said.
Senator Wongpan Na Takuathung asked Egat represenatives about the standards for an EIA of the dam construction.
Nipol insisted that Egat will use their own standards and likely those of the World Bank standard.
"We don't want to have any conflict in Thailand so we'll try to use our high standard, but we need consent from Burma as we value the compensation differently," he said.
Asked if there will be public hearings on the construction of the dam, the Egat official said he has proposed to his Burmese counterparts that they should commit to the same environmental standards as Egat, but that further discussion is needed.
Senator Tuenjai Deetes asked about human rights violations and how Egat would go about assessing the impact of the dam on ethnic minorities in Burma. The Egat official insisted that the Burmese officials are saying that the Hutgyi dam has the least impact of the five dams and that is why they have proposed that it be constructed first. However, Nipol added that Egat will conduct its own social and environmental impact studies in order to be acceptable to the international community.
The Egat manager was then asked when Thai villagers will be given more information concerning the dam construction as there has already been work on some infrastructure projects, such as a road from Poso to Weigyi village on the border.
The Egat official insisted that since half of the dam is in Burma this is not yet the time to disclose the facts to the Thai people.
Nipol was then asked about the displaced ethnic Karen in the Karen state of Burma, in particular at Sub-moei, where the Hutgyi dam will be constructed and where in February of this year more than 400 asylum seekers were waiting. There are countless other internal displaced persons inside Burma because of the dam projects.
The Egat official responded that the area that will be submerged would be only a few rai of land.
"That area (around Sub-moei) should be all right (meaning there will be no more fighting), that is why the Burmese government decided that the dam can be built in that area first," he said, adding that when Egat conducted the survey in the area, they saw no forced relocation.
"Those asylum seekers might have been forced to relocate for some other reasons, but not because of the Hutgyi dam," he said, adding that the project is "government-to-government".
Egat officials emphasised that the agreement between the two countries is confidential, even though many senators went on record as saying that an international agreement should not be above the Thai system of internal checks and balances.
Under the Thai Constitution, Article 224, any international agreement which will affect the boundaries of the country must be deliberated in Parliament.
Senator Kraisak Choonhavan said that the dams project "would definitely change the boundary. The dams would create large reservoirs. How could we then tell where the Thai-Burmese border is?"